02-13-10, Hal Weber Comments on the
According to Agenda
Item 8.a. for next
Tuesday’s
"As
of December 31, 2009, the City's General Fund received approximately $60
million which represents 35.9% of the original estimated revenues for fiscal
year end June 30, 2010. This amount is
consistent with the previous fiscal year. Fiscal year end revenues are projected to be
$3.7 million less than originally expected. The decrease in revenue projections are
primarily due to the economic impact on local sales tax revenues as well as
construction-related permit fees and interest revenue from investments. The City continues to see these areas
underperform."
If $60M
is 35.9% of the original estimated revenues for fiscal year end June 30, 2010,
then the estimated revenue must have been approximately $60M/0.359, or $167M. The only significant increase in estimated
revenues during the second half of the Fiscal Year appears to be in Property
Tax, since only 19.8% was accounted for through 12-31-09. If the other 81.2% comes in through 6-30-10, somewhat
dubious considering the high number of foreclosures in Glendale this year, that
would bring in $41.2M, $33.1M more than the$59.2M during the first half, for a
total of $92.3M. Adding this new
estimated revenue for both halves of the Fiscal Year ($59.2M plus $92.3M) equals
$152.5M. That’s a shortfall of $164.8M
minus $152.5M, or $12.3M, NOT the 3.7M projected by Mr. Elliot.
There is a difference between my
calculation of the original estimated revenue ($167M) and the actual estimated
revenue ($164.8M) due to Mr. Elliot’s rounding the revenue received, shown in Table
1, page 4, from $59.2M up to $60M.
There’s a
lot of speculation here, of course. I
hope I am wrong and Mr. Elliot is right.
Be sure to re-visit this page when the Fiscal Year 2009-2010 information
is finalized!
Hal Weber